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Sestri Levante vs Sanremese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Sestri Levante

PPG 1.27 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Sanremese

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-19.8%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.0%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.6%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% — — —

Draw 31.7% — — —

Away win 25.8% — — —

Over 2.5 40.6% — — —

Over 3.5 20.2% — — —

BTTS 47.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.9%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sestri Levante1.3

Sanremese1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SESTRI LEVANTE · PPG 1.27

SANREMESE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Sestri Levante (H) 42.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sanremese (A) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sestri Levante face Sanremese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sestri Levante a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Sanremese 26%, so Sestri Levante are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sestri Levante and 1.0 for Sanremese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sestri Levante are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.38 for Sanremese. This match finished 0-2.

Sestri Levante vs Sanremese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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