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Asti vs Ligorna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Asti

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Ligorna

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-117.9%0-211.6%0-35.0%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.4%1-112.2%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.2%2-14.2%2-22.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 40.4% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 14.0% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.5%

A 40% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.9%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.2%

#4 0–2 11.6%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asti0.7

Ligorna1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTI · PPG 0.94

LIGORNA · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Asti (H) 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ligorna (A) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Asti face Ligorna in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asti a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Ligorna 40%, so Ligorna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Asti and 1.3 for Ligorna (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asti are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.88 for Ligorna. This match finished 1-1.

Asti vs Ligorna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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