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Lavagnese vs Citta di Varese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Lavagnese

PPG 0.94 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Citta di Varese

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-111.3%0-27.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.8%2-17.4%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% — — —

Draw 31.3% — — —

Away win 37.6% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 51.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.1%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lavagnese1.1

Citta di Varese1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LAVAGNESE · PPG 0.94

CITTA DI VARESE · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Lavagnese (H) 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Citta di Varese (A) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lavagnese face Citta di Varese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lavagnese a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Citta di Varese 38%, so Citta di Varese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lavagnese and 1.3 for Citta di Varese (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lavagnese are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.56 for Citta di Varese. This match finished 2-3.

Lavagnese vs Citta di Varese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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