Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg / ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV

ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

ETSV Hamburg

PPG 2.53 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Niendorfer TSV

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.1%1-14.0%1-22.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.3%2-16.8%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-17.7%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-115.9%4+-210.2%4+-34.4%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.0% — — —

Draw 13.3% — — —

Away win 9.7% — — —

Over 2.5 84.9% — — —

Over 3.5 69.3% — — —

BTTS 70.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 84%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob70.7%

H 77% / xG 3.4-1.3 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1✓ 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 3–0 6.0%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ETSV Hamburg3.4

Niendorfer TSV1.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.9% · O3.5 PROB 69.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ETSV HAMBURG · PPG 2.53

NIENDORFER TSV · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.53), Away AVERAGE (1.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ETSV Hamburg (H) 77.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Niendorfer TSV (A) 9.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ETSV Hamburg face Niendorfer TSV in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ETSV Hamburg a 77% chance, the draw 13% and Niendorfer TSV 10%, so ETSV Hamburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for ETSV Hamburg and 1.3 for Niendorfer TSV (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ETSV Hamburg are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.38 for Niendorfer TSV. This match finished 2-1.

ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg Predictions