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Metalist 1925 vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

Metalist 1925

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Polessya

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-114.0%0-27.2%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.3%2-16.5%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Draw 34.9% 35.7% 2.80 -2.3%

Away win 34.2% 42.0% 2.38 -18.6%

Over 2.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

Over 3.5 14.2% 18.2% 5.50 -21.9%

BTTS 41.9% 45.5% 2.20 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob41.9%

D 35% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1✓ 14.0%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalist 19251.0

Polessya1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

METALIST 1925 · PPG 2.00

POLESSYA · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Metalist 1925 (H) 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Draw 34.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.3%

Polessya (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalist 1925 face Polessya in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalist 1925 a 31% chance, the draw 35% and Polessya 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Metalist 1925 and 1.0 for Polessya (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalist 1925 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Polessya. This match finished 0-1.

Metalist 1925 vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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