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Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Lamphun Warrior

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chiangrai Utd

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.3%0-25.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.6%1-111.9%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.5%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 64.5% 1.55 -43.0%

Draw 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +3.3%

Away win 34.5% 17.9% 5.60 +93.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.8% 1.93 +3.3%

Over 3.5 31.2% 30.8% 3.25 +1.4%

BTTS 58.9% 54.1% 1.85 +9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.9%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0✓ 6.0%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lamphun Warrior1.4

Chiangrai Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LAMPHUN WARRIOR · PPG 1.07

CHIANGRAI UTD · PPG 1.07

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Lamphun Warrior (H) 36.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -43.0%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.3%

Chiangrai Utd (A) 34.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +93.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lamphun Warrior face Chiangrai Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lamphun Warrior a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Chiangrai Utd 35%, so Lamphun Warrior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lamphun Warrior and 1.4 for Chiangrai Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.07 for Chiangrai Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +93.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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