Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg / Halstenbek-R. vs Harksheide

Halstenbek-R. vs Harksheide Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Halstenbek-R.

PPG 0.47 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Harksheide

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.7%0-23.1%0-32.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-02.5%1-15.8%1-26.7%1-35.1%1-4+5.1%2 2-02.7%2-16.2%2-27.1%2-35.5%2-4+5.4%3 3-01.9%3-14.4%3-25.1%3-33.9%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.9%4+-24.4%4+-33.4%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 42.5% — — —

Over 2.5 81.9% — — —

Over 3.5 64.7% — — —

BTTS 80.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob80.2%

A 42% / xG 2.1-2.3 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 80%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 1–2 6.7%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halstenbek-R.2.1

Harksheide2.3

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.9% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HALSTENBEK-R. · PPG 0.47

HARKSHEIDE · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.47) vs Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Halstenbek-R. (H) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harksheide (A) 42.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Halstenbek-R. face Harksheide in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halstenbek-R. a 36% chance, the draw 21% and Harksheide 43%, so Harksheide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Halstenbek-R. and 2.3 for Harksheide (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 80% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halstenbek-R. are averaging 0.47 points per game versus 0.80 for Harksheide. This match finished 0-4.

Halstenbek-R. vs Harksheide Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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