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Buchholz vs Vorwarts-Wacker Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Buchholz

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vorwarts-Wacker

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.7%0-20.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-01.2%1-12.5%1-22.8%1-32.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-02.0%2-14.5%2-24.9%2-33.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.4%3-15.2%3-25.8%3-34.3%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-111.3%4+-212.5%4+-39.2%4+-4+8.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% — — —

Draw 15.9% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 92.4% — — —

Over 3.5 82.2% — — —

BTTS 86.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob86.7%

H 62% / xG 3.5-2.2 / O2.5 92% / BTTS 87%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.8%

#2 3–1 5.2%

#3 4–2 5.1%

#4 2–2 4.9%

#5 4–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchholz3.5

Vorwarts-Wacker2.2

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 92.4% · O3.5 PROB 82.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHHOLZ · PPG 1.69

VORWARTS-WACKER · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=62.4%

Win probability 1X2

Buchholz (H) 62.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vorwarts-Wacker (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchholz face Vorwarts-Wacker in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchholz a 62% chance, the draw 16% and Vorwarts-Wacker 22%, so Buchholz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Buchholz and 2.2 for Vorwarts-Wacker (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 92% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 87% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchholz are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.86 for Vorwarts-Wacker. This match finished 2-1.

Buchholz vs Vorwarts-Wacker Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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