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Norderstedt vs BW Lohne Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Norderstedt

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

BW Lohne

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.8%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.2%1-19.3%1-27.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 51.3% 1.95 -8.6%

Draw 24.7% 26.0% 3.85 -4.9%

Away win 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Over 2.5 66.8% 69.4% 1.44 -3.8%

Over 3.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

BTTS 67.9% 71.4% 1.40 -4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob67.9%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norderstedt1.9

BW Lohne1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NORDERSTEDT · PPG 0.93

BW LOHNE · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.93) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Norderstedt (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -8.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.9%

BW Lohne (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norderstedt face BW Lohne in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norderstedt a 47% chance, the draw 25% and BW Lohne 28%, so Norderstedt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Norderstedt and 1.5 for BW Lohne (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norderstedt are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.60 for BW Lohne. This match finished 2-1.

Norderstedt vs BW Lohne Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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