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Hamburger SV B vs Phonix Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Hamburger SV B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Phonix Lubeck

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.5%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.5%1-110.8%1-27.7%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-15.0%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.0%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 51.3% 1.95 -19.3%

Draw 26.9% 26.7% 3.75 +0.9%

Away win 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

Over 2.5 59.8% 63.7% 1.57 -6.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 40.8% 2.45 -8.1%

BTTS 63.4% 66.7% 1.50 -4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV B1.7

Phonix Lubeck1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV B · PPG 1.40

PHONIX LUBECK · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV B (H) 41.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -19.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.9%

Phonix Lubeck (A) 31.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV B face Phonix Lubeck in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV B a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Phonix Lubeck 32%, so Hamburger SV B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hamburger SV B and 1.4 for Phonix Lubeck (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Phonix Lubeck. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Hamburger SV B vs Phonix Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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