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Randers FC vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Randers FC

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vejle BK

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.1%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.6%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 63.7% 1.57 -26.5%

Draw 28.0% 25.3% 3.95 +10.6%

Away win 25.2% 17.9% 5.60 +41.1%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 30.6% 33.9% 2.95 -9.7%

BTTS 56.9% 56.5% 1.77 +0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Randers FC1.6

Vejle BK1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RANDERS FC · PPG 1.07

VEJLE BK · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

Randers FC (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -26.5%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +10.6%

Vejle BK (A) 25.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +41.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Randers FC face Vejle BK in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Randers FC a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Vejle BK 25%, so Randers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Randers FC and 1.2 for Vejle BK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Randers FC are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.36 for Vejle BK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Randers FC vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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