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Randers FC vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Randers FC

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vejle BK

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.1%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.6%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 63.7% 1.57 -26.5%

Draw 28.0% 25.3% 3.95 +10.6%

Away win 25.2% 17.9% 5.60 +41.1%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 30.6% 33.9% 2.95 -9.7%

BTTS 56.9% 56.5% 1.77 +0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Randers FC1.6

Vejle BK1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RANDERS FC · PPG 1.07

VEJLE BK · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

Randers FC (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -26.5%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +10.6%

Vejle BK (A) 25.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +41.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Randers FC face Vejle BK in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Randers FC a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Vejle BK 25%, so Randers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Randers FC and 1.2 for Vejle BK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Randers FC are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.36 for Vejle BK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Randers FC vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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