Paks vs Debrecen Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Hungary - NB I Regular Season - 32 Fehervari uti Stadion· Paks Sunday, May 3, 2026 11:30

Paks PPG 1.67

5-2 MISS

Debrecen PPG 1.75

Away· +2.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Paks face Debrecen in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paks a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Debrecen 34%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paks and 1.5 for Debrecen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paks are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.75 for Debrecen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 5-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.0%

Odds: 2.12 EV: -19.4%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -2.0%

Away 34.4%

Odds: 2.98 EV: +2.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.8% Odds: 1.50 -13.3%

Over 3.5 35.4% Odds: 2.25 -20.3%

BTTS 62.1% Odds: 1.42 -11.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Paks

1.54

Debrecen

1.46

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+2.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 65%

BTTS/No 65%

Score Hit 48%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.75)