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Paks vs Debrecen Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

Paks

PPG 1.67 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Debrecen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.2%0-25.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.6%1-111.2%1-28.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.6%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.0%3-14.4%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 47.2% 2.12 -19.4%

Draw 27.6% 28.2% 3.55 -2.0%

Away win 34.4% 33.6% 2.98 +2.5%

Over 2.5 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Over 3.5 35.4% 44.4% 2.25 -20.3%

BTTS 62.1% 70.4% 1.42 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paks1.5

Debrecen1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKS · PPG 1.67

DEBRECEN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Paks (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -19.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.0%

Debrecen (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paks face Debrecen in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paks a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Debrecen 34%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paks and 1.5 for Debrecen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paks are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.75 for Debrecen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 5-2.

Paks vs Debrecen Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Hungary - NB I Predictions