Today / Hungary - NB I / Paks vs Debrecen

Paks vs Debrecen Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

Paks

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Debrecen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.2%0-25.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.6%1-111.2%1-28.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.6%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.0%3-14.4%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 47.2% 2.12 -19.4%

Draw 27.6% 28.2% 3.55 -2.0%

Away win 34.4% 33.6% 2.98 +2.5%

Over 2.5 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Over 3.5 35.4% 44.4% 2.25 -20.3%

BTTS 62.1% 70.4% 1.42 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paks1.5

Debrecen1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKS · PPG 1.67

DEBRECEN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Paks (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -19.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.0%

Debrecen (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paks face Debrecen in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paks a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Debrecen 34%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paks and 1.5 for Debrecen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paks are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.75 for Debrecen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 5-2.

Paks vs Debrecen Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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