Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg / HT16 vs Curslack-N.

HT16 vs Curslack-N. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:30

HT16

PPG 1.07 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Curslack-N.

PPG 0.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.3%0-20.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.8%1-11.5%1-21.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-01.8%2-13.3%2-23.0%2-31.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-15.0%3-24.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-119.7%4+-217.7%4+-310.6%4+-4+7.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.2% — — —

Draw 9.8% — — —

Away win 9.0% — — —

Over 2.5 95.1% — — —

Over 3.5 87.5% — — —

BTTS 82.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)4.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob82.7%

H 81% / xG 4.5-1.8 / O2.5 95% / BTTS 83%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 5.6%

#2 5–1✓ 5.1%

#3 4–2 5.1%

#4 3–1 5.0%

#5 5–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HT164.5

Curslack-N.1.8

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 95.1% · O3.5 PROB 87.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HT16 · PPG 1.07

CURSLACK-N. · PPG 0.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.07), Away POOR (0.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

HT16 (H) 81.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 9.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Curslack-N. (A) 9.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HT16 face Curslack-N. in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HT16 a 81% chance, the draw 10% and Curslack-N. 9%, so HT16 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.5 for HT16 and 1.8 for Curslack-N. (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 95% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HT16 are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.07 for Curslack-N.. This match finished 5-1.

HT16 vs Curslack-N. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg Predictions