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Obolon vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Obolon

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kudrivka

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.6%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.5%1-112.7%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.4%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.0%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

Draw 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Away win 32.2% 31.3% 3.20 +3.0%

Over 2.5 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Over 3.5 25.1% 25.0% 4.00 +0.4%

BTTS 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.5%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Obolon1.3

Kudrivka1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OBOLON · PPG 1.00

KUDRIVKA · PPG 0.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

Obolon (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Kudrivka (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Obolon face Kudrivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Obolon a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Kudrivka 32%, so Obolon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Obolon and 1.2 for Kudrivka (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Obolon are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.42 for Kudrivka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Obolon vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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