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Yeclano vs CD Estepona Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Yeclano

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

CD Estepona

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.9%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.3%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-18.0%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% — — —

Draw 33.0% — — —

Away win 27.4% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 45.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.6%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yeclano1.2

CD Estepona1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

YECLANO · PPG 1.88

CD ESTEPONA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Yeclano (H) 39.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CD Estepona (A) 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Yeclano face CD Estepona in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yeclano a 40% chance, the draw 33% and CD Estepona 27%, so Yeclano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Yeclano and 1.0 for CD Estepona (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yeclano are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.56 for CD Estepona. This match finished 1-1.

Yeclano vs CD Estepona Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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