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La Union vs Puente Genil Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

La Union logo
La Union
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
Puente Genil logo
Puente Genil
PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.4%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.8%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.7%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.1%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 43.8%
Draw 31.3%
Away win 24.9%
Over 2.5 41.3%
Over 3.5 20.8%
BTTS 48.2%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5 75%
BTTS 67%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 10.3%
Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%
#2 0–0 9.7%
#3 1–0 13.2%
#4 2–0 9.0%
#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Union1.4
Puente Genil1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LA UNION · PPG 1.50

PUENTE GENIL · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=43.8%

Win probability 1X2

La Union (H) 43.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 31.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Puente Genil (A) 24.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

La Union face Puente Genil in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Union a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Puente Genil 25%, so La Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for La Union and 1.0 for Puente Genil (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Union are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Puente Genil. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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