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Real Jaen vs Antoniano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Real Jaen

PPG 2.19 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Antoniano

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.9%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.5%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.1%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% — — —

Draw 31.0% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 39.6% — — —

Over 3.5 19.4% — — —

BTTS 45.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.5%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Jaen1.4

Antoniano0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL JAEN · PPG 2.19

ANTONIANO · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs P(Home)=47.9%

Win probability 1X2

Real Jaen (H) 47.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Antoniano (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Jaen face Antoniano in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Jaen a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Antoniano 21%, so Real Jaen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Jaen and 0.9 for Antoniano (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Jaen are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 0.44 for Antoniano. This match finished 1-1.

Real Jaen vs Antoniano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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