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Linares vs CD Extremadura Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Linares

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CD Extremadura

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.0%0-26.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.9%1-112.7%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-18.0%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% — — —

Draw 30.5% — — —

Away win 35.3% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 25.3% — — —

BTTS 53.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.8%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–2✓ 8.2%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linares1.3

CD Extremadura1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LINARES · PPG 1.50

CD EXTREMADURA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Linares (H) 34.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CD Extremadura (A) 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Linares face CD Extremadura in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linares a 34% chance, the draw 31% and CD Extremadura 35%, so CD Extremadura are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Linares and 1.3 for CD Extremadura (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linares are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.13 for CD Extremadura. This match finished 1-2.

Linares vs CD Extremadura Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions