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Recreativo H. vs Xerez D. FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Group 4 - 34 Nuevo Colombino· Huelva Sunday, May 3, 2026 10:00
Recreativo H. logo Recreativo H. PPG 2.13
3-2 MISS
Xerez D. FC logo Xerez D. FC PPG 0.81
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Recreativo H. face Xerez D. FC in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recreativo H. a 50% chance, the draw 31% and Xerez D. FC 19%, so Recreativo H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Recreativo H. and 0.8 for Xerez D. FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recreativo H. are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.81 for Xerez D. FC. This match finished 3-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.6%
Odds: — EV: —
Draw 31.4%
Odds: — EV: —
Away 18.9%
Odds: — EV: —
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 36.4% Odds: —
Over 3.5 17.1% Odds: —
BTTS 42.0% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 0-0
4th 2-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Recreativo H.
1.38
Xerez D. FC
0.77

Model Suggestion

No Bet MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

League Track Record

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5/Under 75%
BTTS/No 67%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 15.0%
Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=49.6%

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