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Recreativo H. vs Xerez D. FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Recreativo H.

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Xerez D. FC

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-18.9%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.4%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.5%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-13.9%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% — — —

Draw 31.4% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 36.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 42.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.0%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recreativo H.1.4

Xerez D. FC0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RECREATIVO H. · PPG 2.13

XEREZ D. FC · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=49.6%

Win probability 1X2

Recreativo H. (H) 49.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Xerez D. FC (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Recreativo H. face Xerez D. FC in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recreativo H. a 50% chance, the draw 31% and Xerez D. FC 19%, so Recreativo H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Recreativo H. and 0.8 for Xerez D. FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recreativo H. are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.81 for Xerez D. FC. This match finished 3-2.

Recreativo H. vs Xerez D. FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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