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Xerez CD vs UCAM Murcia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Xerez CD

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

UCAM Murcia

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-111.4%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-17.8%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% — — —

Draw 33.8% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 15.6% — — —

BTTS 43.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.0%

H 40% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0✓ 14.7%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xerez CD1.2

UCAM Murcia0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

XEREZ CD · PPG 2.06

UCAM MURCIA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=39.8%

Win probability 1X2

Xerez CD (H) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UCAM Murcia (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Xerez CD face UCAM Murcia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xerez CD a 40% chance, the draw 34% and UCAM Murcia 26%, so Xerez CD are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Xerez CD and 0.9 for UCAM Murcia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xerez CD are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.13 for UCAM Murcia. This match finished 1-0.

Xerez CD vs UCAM Murcia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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