Xerez CD vs UCAM Murcia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Group 4 - 34 Estadio Municipal de Chapín· Jerez Sunday, May 3, 2026 10:00

Xerez CD PPG 2.06

1-0 HIT CS3

UCAM Murcia PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Xerez CD face UCAM Murcia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xerez CD a 40% chance, the draw 34% and UCAM Murcia 26%, so Xerez CD are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Xerez CD and 0.9 for UCAM Murcia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xerez CD are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.13 for UCAM Murcia. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.8%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 33.8%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 26.3%

Odds: — EV: —

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 34.2% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 15.6% Odds: — —

BTTS 43.0% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Xerez CD

1.17

UCAM Murcia

0.90

Model SuggestionNo Bet  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 75%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 15.0%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=39.8%