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Aguilas FC vs Almeria B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Aguilas FC

PPG 2.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Almeria B

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=57.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.0%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.2%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.0%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-14.9%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 41.0% — — —

Over 3.5 20.5% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0✓ 12.8%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aguilas FC1.6

Almeria B0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AGUILAS FC · PPG 2.06

ALMERIA B · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=57.4%

Win probability 1X2

Aguilas FC (H) 57.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Almeria B (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aguilas FC face Almeria B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aguilas FC a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Almeria B 15%, so Aguilas FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aguilas FC and 0.7 for Almeria B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aguilas FC are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.56 for Almeria B. This match finished 2-0.

Aguilas FC vs Almeria B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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