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D. Minera vs Lorca Deportiva Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

D. Minera

PPG 2.44 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Lorca Deportiva

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.3%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 30.0% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 42.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.3% — — —

BTTS 47.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.0%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0✓ 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Minera1.5

Lorca Deportiva0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MINERA · PPG 2.44

LORCA DEPORTIVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

D. Minera (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lorca Deportiva (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Minera face Lorca Deportiva in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Minera a 50% chance, the draw 30% and Lorca Deportiva 20%, so D. Minera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for D. Minera and 0.9 for Lorca Deportiva (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Minera are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Lorca Deportiva. This match finished 1-0.

D. Minera vs Lorca Deportiva Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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