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SD Ibiza vs Poblense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

SD Ibiza

PPG 1.69 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Poblense

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-113.6%0-27.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.5%1-113.4%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.7%2-16.6%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.2%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% — — —

Draw 33.4% — — —

Away win 37.7% — — —

Over 2.5 36.3% — — —

Over 3.5 17.0% — — —

BTTS 45.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.0%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 13.6%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Ibiza1.0

Poblense1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SD IBIZA · PPG 1.69

POBLENSE · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

SD Ibiza (H) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Poblense (A) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Ibiza face Poblense in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Ibiza a 29% chance, the draw 33% and Poblense 38%, so Poblense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for SD Ibiza and 1.2 for Poblense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Ibiza are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.44 for Poblense. This match finished 3-1.

SD Ibiza vs Poblense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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