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Sant Andreu vs Barbastro Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Sant Andreu

PPG 2.44 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Barbastro

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.7%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-112.8%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.4%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 32.2% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 36.7% — — —

Over 3.5 17.3% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sant Andreu1.3

Barbastro0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANT ANDREU · PPG 2.44

BARBASTRO · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=46.0%

Win probability 1X2

Sant Andreu (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barbastro (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sant Andreu face Barbastro in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sant Andreu a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Barbastro 22%, so Sant Andreu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sant Andreu and 0.8 for Barbastro (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sant Andreu are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.19 for Barbastro. This match finished 0-1.

Sant Andreu vs Barbastro Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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