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Andratx vs Atletic Lleida Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Andratx

PPG 1.56 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atletic Lleida

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=37.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.1%0-25.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-18.3%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% — — —

Draw 31.1% — — —

Away win 31.8% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 23.3% — — —

BTTS 51.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.8%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Andratx1.3

Atletic Lleida1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANDRATX · PPG 1.56

ATLETIC LLEIDA · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=37.1%

Win probability 1X2

Andratx (H) 37.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atletic Lleida (A) 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Andratx face Atletic Lleida in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Andratx a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Atletic Lleida 32%, so Andratx are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Andratx and 1.2 for Atletic Lleida (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Andratx are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.69 for Atletic Lleida. This match finished 3-0.

Andratx vs Atletic Lleida Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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