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Castellon B vs Girona B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Castellon B

PPG 1.31 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Girona B

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.2%0-26.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.6%1-111.5%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 38.5% — — —

Over 2.5 55.8% — — —

Over 3.5 33.4% — — —

BTTS 60.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.5%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellon B1.4

Girona B1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLON B · PPG 1.31

GIRONA B · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Castellon B (H) 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Girona B (A) 38.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellon B face Girona B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellon B a 33% chance, the draw 28% and Girona B 39%, so Girona B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Castellon B and 1.5 for Girona B (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellon B are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.88 for Girona B. This match finished 4-2.

Castellon B vs Girona B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions