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Barbastro vs Castellon B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Barbastro

PPG 1.13 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Castellon B

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.5%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.4%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.9%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barbastro2.1

Castellon B1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BARBASTRO · PPG 1.13

CASTELLON B · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Barbastro (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Castellon B (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Barbastro face Castellon B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barbastro a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Castellon B 24%, so Barbastro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Barbastro and 1.1 for Castellon B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barbastro are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.13 for Castellon B. This match finished 3-1.

Barbastro vs Castellon B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions