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A. Baleares vs Terrassa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

A. Baleares

PPG 2.31 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Terrassa

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.4%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-17.9%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-17.4%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Baleares2.3

Terrassa0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

A. BALEARES · PPG 2.31

TERRASSA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

A. Baleares (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Terrassa (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Baleares face Terrassa in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Baleares a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Terrassa 16%, so A. Baleares are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for A. Baleares and 0.7 for Terrassa (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Baleares are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.25 for Terrassa. This match finished 3-1.

A. Baleares vs Terrassa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions