Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Leones Norte vs Aucas

Leones Norte vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 22:00

Leones Norte

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Aucas

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 39.4% — a clear edge.

+70.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-119.8%0-216.4%0-39.1%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.5%1-19.2%1-27.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-01.3%2-12.2%2-21.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.9% 35.5% 2.82 -72.1%

Draw 23.1% 32.3% 3.10 -28.4%

Away win 67.0% 39.4% 2.54 +70.2%

Over 2.5 35.9% 42.6% 2.35 -15.6%

Over 3.5 16.7% 22.2% 4.50 -24.9%

BTTS 30.2% 51.3% 1.95 -41.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob30.2%

A 67% / xG 0.5-1.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 19.8%

#2 0–2 16.4%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–3 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Norte0.5

Aucas1.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NORTE · PPG 1.33

AUCAS · PPG 1.67

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Leones Norte (H) 9.9%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -72.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -28.4%

Aucas (A) 67.0%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +70.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Norte face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Norte a 10% chance, the draw 23% and Aucas 67%, so Aucas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Leones Norte and 1.7 for Aucas (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Norte are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Aucas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +70.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Leones Norte vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions