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Valladolid B vs Burgos B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Valladolid B

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Burgos B

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.2%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.5%1-110.0%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.5%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 62.8% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 64.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.2%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0✓ 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valladolid B1.9

Burgos B1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALLADOLID B · PPG 1.13

BURGOS B · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Valladolid B (H) 49.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Burgos B (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valladolid B face Burgos B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valladolid B a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Burgos B 26%, so Valladolid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Valladolid B and 1.3 for Burgos B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valladolid B are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.75 for Burgos B. This match finished 2-0.

Valladolid B vs Burgos B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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