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Salamanca CF vs Lealtad Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Salamanca CF

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lealtad

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.5%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-111.9%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-15.0%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 23.6% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salamanca CF1.6

Lealtad0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SALAMANCA CF · PPG 1.63

LEALTAD · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Salamanca CF (H) 51.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lealtad (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Salamanca CF face Lealtad in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salamanca CF a 52% chance, the draw 29% and Lealtad 19%, so Salamanca CF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Salamanca CF and 0.9 for Lealtad (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salamanca CF are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.88 for Lealtad. This match finished 2-1.

Salamanca CF vs Lealtad Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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