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Coruxo vs Gimnastica Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Coruxo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Gimnastica

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.4%0-25.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.1%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.3%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 39.1% — — —

Over 3.5 19.1% — — —

BTTS 47.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.0%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coruxo1.3

Gimnastica1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CORUXO · PPG 1.50

GIMNASTICA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Coruxo (H) 40.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gimnastica (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Coruxo face Gimnastica in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coruxo a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Gimnastica 27%, so Coruxo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Coruxo and 1.0 for Gimnastica (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coruxo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.13 for Gimnastica. This match finished 3-1.

Coruxo vs Gimnastica Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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