Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / UD Ourense vs A. Astorga

UD Ourense vs A. Astorga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

UD Ourense

PPG 1.94 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

A. Astorga

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.0%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.0%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.5%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% — — —

Draw 31.9% — — —

Away win 26.4% — — —

Over 2.5 40.1% — — —

Over 3.5 19.8% — — —

BTTS 47.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UD Ourense1.3

A. Astorga1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UD OURENSE · PPG 1.94

A. ASTORGA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

UD Ourense (H) 41.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Astorga (A) 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ourense face A. Astorga in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ourense a 42% chance, the draw 32% and A. Astorga 26%, so UD Ourense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for UD Ourense and 1.0 for A. Astorga (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ourense are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.31 for A. Astorga. This match finished 1-1.

UD Ourense vs A. Astorga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions