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UD Ourense PPG 1.94 
A. Astorga PPG 1.31
UD Ourense vs A. Astorga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense PPG 1.941-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
A. Astorga PPG 1.31 ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence
Match Preview & Prediction
UD Ourense face A. Astorga in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ourense a 42% chance, the draw 32% and A. Astorga 26%, so UD Ourense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for UD Ourense and 1.0 for A. Astorga (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ourense are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.31 for A. Astorga. This match finished 1-1.
Match Result (1X2)
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 40.1% Odds: — —
Over 3.5 19.8% Odds: — —
BTTS 47.6% Odds: — —
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✔
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
UD Ourense 1.30
A. Astorga 0.99
Model Suggestion
No Bet MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 22 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 68%
O2.5/Under 46%
BTTS/No 36%
Score Hit 50%
ROI 10.6%
Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
MODERATE_HOME 52%
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)