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Numancia vs Marino de L. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Numancia

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Marino de L.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-112.3%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.6%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-17.4%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 32.8% — — —

Over 3.5 14.6% — — —

BTTS 42.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.1%

D 35% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 14.6%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Numancia1.1

Marino de L.0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NUMANCIA · PPG 1.81

MARINO DE L. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Numancia (H) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Marino de L. (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Numancia face Marino de L. in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Numancia a 37% chance, the draw 35% and Marino de L. 28%, so Numancia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Numancia and 0.9 for Marino de L. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Numancia are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.50 for Marino de L.. This match finished 1-0.

Numancia vs Marino de L. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions