Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / Samano vs Bergantinos

Samano vs Bergantinos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Samano

PPG 0.69 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bergantinos

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.69)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-112.6%0-210.4%0-35.7%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.2%2-15.3%2-24.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.2% — — —

Draw 27.9% — — —

Away win 52.9% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 25.9% — — —

BTTS 50.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob50.4%

A 53% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 0–2 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samano0.9

Bergantinos1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMANO · PPG 0.69

BERGANTINOS · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Samano (H) 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bergantinos (A) 52.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Samano face Bergantinos in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samano a 19% chance, the draw 28% and Bergantinos 53%, so Bergantinos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Samano and 1.7 for Bergantinos (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samano are averaging 0.69 points per game versus 1.38 for Bergantinos. This match finished 0-5.

Samano vs Bergantinos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions