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Arenteiro vs Cacereno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Arenteiro

PPG 1.12 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

Cacereno

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-111.8%0-26.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.0%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-17.6%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.9%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 38.2% 2.62 -5.4%

Draw 33.3% 30.8% 3.25 +8.2%

Away win 30.6% 41.7% 2.40 -26.6%

Over 2.5 37.0% 47.6% 2.10 -22.3%

Over 3.5 17.5% 26.0% 3.85 -32.6%

BTTS 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.8%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arenteiro1.1

Cacereno1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENTEIRO · PPG 1.12

CACERENO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Arenteiro (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -5.4%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +8.2%

Cacereno (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arenteiro face Cacereno in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arenteiro a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Cacereno 31%, so Arenteiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Arenteiro and 1.0 for Cacereno (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arenteiro are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Cacereno. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 0-4.

Arenteiro vs Cacereno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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