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Portimonense vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Portimonense

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chaves

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.3%0-27.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.5%1-113.0%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.0%2-17.5%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 38.5% 2.60 -17.1%

Draw 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

Away win 36.6% 39.2% 2.55 -6.7%

Over 2.5 43.0% 48.8% 2.05 -11.8%

Over 3.5 22.1% 27.4% 3.65 -19.3%

BTTS 50.7% 57.1% 1.75 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.7%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portimonense1.2

Chaves1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTIMONENSE · PPG 0.93

CHAVES · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.93) vs Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Portimonense (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.1%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.8%

Chaves (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portimonense face Chaves in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portimonense a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Chaves 37%, so Chaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Portimonense and 1.2 for Chaves (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portimonense are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.27 for Chaves. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Portimonense vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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