Portimonense vs Chaves Prediction & Tips

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Portugal - Segunda Liga Regular Season - 32 Estádio Municipal de Portimão· Portimão Sunday, May 3, 2026 10:00

Portimonense PPG 0.93

3-2 MISS

Chaves PPG 1.27

Draw· +0.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.9%

Odds: 2.60 EV: -17.1%

Draw 31.5%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +0.8%

Away 36.6%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -6.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.0% Odds: 2.05 -11.8%

Over 3.5 22.1% Odds: 3.65 -19.3%

BTTS 50.7% Odds: 1.75 -11.3%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Portimonense

1.15

Chaves

1.25

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+0.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.93) vs Away AVERAGE (1.27)