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Paloma vs Sasel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 08:45

Paloma

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sasel

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.4%0-21.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-02.3%1-14.3%1-24.0%1-32.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.5%2-26.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.5%3-16.5%3-26.0%3-33.7%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-110.4%4+-29.6%4+-35.9%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.0% — — —

Draw 17.7% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 86.4% — — —

Over 3.5 71.7% — — —

BTTS 80.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob80.8%

H 61% / xG 3.0-1.9 / O2.5 86% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.5%

#2 2–1 6.5%

#3 3–2 6.0%

#4 2–2✓ 6.0%

#5 4–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paloma3.0

Sasel1.9

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 86.4% · O3.5 PROB 71.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PALOMA · PPG 2.20

SASEL · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=61.0%

Win probability 1X2

Paloma (H) 61.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sasel (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paloma face Sasel in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paloma a 61% chance, the draw 18% and Sasel 21%, so Paloma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Paloma and 1.9 for Sasel (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paloma are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Sasel. This match finished 2-2.

Paloma vs Sasel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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