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Wollongong W. vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong W.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rockdale

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.7%0-25.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.4%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.8%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 34.5% 2.90 +15.1%

Draw 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +4.0%

Away win 30.6% 47.6% 2.10 -35.7%

Over 2.5 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Over 3.5 27.3% 38.5% 2.60 -29.0%

BTTS 55.3% 65.4% 1.53 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong W.1.4

Rockdale1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 2.00

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong W. (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +15.1%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +4.0%

Rockdale (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong W. face Rockdale in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong W. a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Rockdale 31%, so Wollongong W. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wollongong W. and 1.2 for Rockdale (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong W. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Rockdale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Wollongong W. vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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