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Sydney Utd vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 04:30

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.38 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-17.5%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.9%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-19.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 69.4% 1.44 +0.9%

Draw 18.7% 23.8% 4.20 -21.5%

Away win 11.2% 16.7% 6.00 -32.8%

Over 2.5 67.4% 61.7% 1.62 +9.2%

Over 3.5 45.7% 39.2% 2.55 +16.5%

BTTS 57.8% 57.8% 1.73 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 70% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–0✓ 8.2%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Utd2.5

Sydney Olympic1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.38

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Utd (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +0.9%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -21.5%

Sydney Olympic (A) 11.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Utd face Sydney Olympic in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Utd a 70% chance, the draw 19% and Sydney Olympic 11%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sydney Utd and 1.0 for Sydney Olympic (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Utd are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Sydney Utd vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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