Today / USA - USL Super League / Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina A. W

Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina A. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:30

Tampa Bay Sun W

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Carolina A. W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-116.5%0-211.4%0-35.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.3%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.3%2-14.6%2-23.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.2% 30.8% 3.25 -34.4%

Draw 27.8% 34.5% 2.90 -19.4%

Away win 52.0% 48.8% 2.05 +6.6%

Over 2.5 35.6% — — —

Over 3.5 16.6% — — —

BTTS 39.3% 54.6% 1.83 -28.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob39.3%

A 52% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.5%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay Sun W0.7

Carolina A. W1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY SUN W · PPG 0.67

CAROLINA A. W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay Sun W (H) 20.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -34.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -19.4%

Carolina A. W (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay Sun W face Carolina A. W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay Sun W a 20% chance, the draw 28% and Carolina A. W 52%, so Carolina A. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Tampa Bay Sun W and 1.4 for Carolina A. W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay Sun W are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Carolina A. W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina A. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Super League Predictions