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Deportivo Merlo vs A. Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

A. Quilmes

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.6%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.3%1-113.2%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.2%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% — — —

Draw 32.1% — — —

Away win 29.8% — — —

Over 2.5 40.8% — — —

Over 3.5 20.4% — — —

BTTS 48.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.8%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0✓ 12.3%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.2

A. Quilmes1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.33

A. QUILMES · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 38.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Quilmes (A) 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face A. Quilmes in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 38% chance, the draw 32% and A. Quilmes 30%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo Merlo and 1.1 for A. Quilmes (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.83 for A. Quilmes. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Merlo vs A. Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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