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LDU Quito vs Guayaquil City Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:30

LDU Quito

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-114.9%0-26.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.0%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.7%2-16.0%2-22.7%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.0%3-11.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 72.5% 1.38 -56.3%

Draw 37.0% 22.7% 4.40 +62.8%

Away win 31.4% 12.0% 8.30 +160.6%

Over 2.5 26.8% 54.6% 1.83 -51.0%

Over 3.5 10.8% 32.3% 3.10 -66.5%

BTTS 37.1% 48.8% 2.05 -23.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob37.1%

D 37% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0✓ 15.0%

#4 0–1 14.9%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Quito0.9

Guayaquil City0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.8% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.00

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

37%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

LDU Quito (H) 31.7%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -56.3%

Draw 37.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +62.8%

Guayaquil City (A) 31.4%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV +160.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Quito face Guayaquil City in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Quito a 32% chance, the draw 37% and Guayaquil City 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for LDU Quito and 0.9 for Guayaquil City (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Quito are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Guayaquil City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +160.6%. This match finished 1-0.

LDU Quito vs Guayaquil City Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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