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SM Burzaco vs Brown de A. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:00

SM Burzaco

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Brown de A.

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-110.1%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-112.8%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.2%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 32.9% — — —

Away win 21.5% — — —

Over 2.5 34.4% — — —

Over 3.5 15.7% — — —

BTTS 41.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.7%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0✓ 12.5%

#3 1–0 16.0%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Burzaco1.3

Brown de A.0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SM BURZACO · PPG 1.00

BROWN DE A. · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

SM Burzaco (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brown de A. (A) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Burzaco face Brown de A. in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Burzaco a 46% chance, the draw 33% and Brown de A. 22%, so SM Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SM Burzaco and 0.8 for Brown de A. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Burzaco are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Brown de A.. This match finished 0-0.

SM Burzaco vs Brown de A. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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