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Real Madrid B vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 logo Spain flag Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 35 Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano· Madrid Saturday, May 2, 2026 19:00
Real Madrid B logo Real Madrid B PPG 2.00
1-0 HIT CS3
Unionistas logo Unionistas PPG 1.12
Away· +8.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid B face Unionistas in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid B a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Unionistas 26%, so Real Madrid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Madrid B and 1.2 for Unionistas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Unionistas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.8%
Odds: 1.75 EV: -19.9%
Draw 28.3%
Odds: 3.45 EV: -2.4%
Away 25.9%
Odds: 4.20 EV: +8.8%
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.0% Odds: 1.83 -4.8%
Over 3.5 29.8% Odds: 3.10 -7.6%
BTTS 56.5% Odds: 1.70 -4.0%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 1-0
4th 0-0
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Madrid B
1.60
Unionistas
1.16

Model Suggestion

BTTS -4.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+8.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%
O2.5/Under 53%
BTTS/No 62%
Score Hit 47%
ROI -35.1%
Bet Hit 35% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.8%

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