Today / Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Real Madrid B vs Unionistas

Real Madrid B vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

Real Madrid B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Unionistas

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.4%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.8%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 57.1% 1.75 -19.9%

Draw 28.3% 29.0% 3.45 -2.4%

Away win 25.9% 23.8% 4.20 +8.8%

Over 2.5 52.0% 54.6% 1.83 -4.8%

Over 3.5 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -7.6%

BTTS 56.5% 58.8% 1.70 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0✓ 10.2%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid B1.6

Unionistas1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID B · PPG 2.00

UNIONISTAS · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.8%

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid B (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -19.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.4%

Unionistas (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid B face Unionistas in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid B a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Unionistas 26%, so Real Madrid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Madrid B and 1.2 for Unionistas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Unionistas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Real Madrid B vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions