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D. Cuenca vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Tecnico U.

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-112.6%0-26.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.2%2-17.3%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 51.0% 1.96 -31.8%

Draw 34.2% 30.8% 3.25 +11.2%

Away win 31.1% 25.3% 3.95 +22.9%

Over 2.5 34.4% 44.4% 2.25 -22.6%

Over 3.5 15.7% 23.8% 4.20 -34.1%

BTTS 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.7%

D 34% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–1✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Cuenca1.1

Tecnico U.1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.00

TECNICO U. · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

44%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

D. Cuenca (H) 34.8%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -31.8%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +11.2%

Tecnico U. (A) 31.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Cuenca face Tecnico U. in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Cuenca a 35% chance, the draw 34% and Tecnico U. 31%, so D. Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for D. Cuenca and 1.0 for Tecnico U. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Cuenca are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Tecnico U.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 2-1.

D. Cuenca vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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