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Villa Dalmine vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Excursionistas

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-113.5%0-25.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.4%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.7%2-16.6%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% — — —

Draw 36.3% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 28.2% — — —

Over 3.5 11.6% — — —

BTTS 38.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob38.2%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0✓ 15.6%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Dalmine1.0

Excursionistas0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.2% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.50

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Villa Dalmine (H) 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Excursionistas (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Excursionistas in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 35% chance, the draw 36% and Excursionistas 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Villa Dalmine and 0.9 for Excursionistas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.83 for Excursionistas. This match finished 1-0.

Villa Dalmine vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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