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UAI Urquiza vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

UAI Urquiza

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.1%0-119.8%0-210.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.9%1-112.3%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-03.7%2-13.8%2-22.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.8%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.9% — — —

Draw 37.2% — — —

Away win 42.9% — — —

Over 2.5 23.1% — — —

Over 3.5 8.6% — — —

BTTS 31.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob31.6%

A 43% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.1%

#2 0–1✓ 19.8%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–2 10.2%

#5 1–0 11.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UAI Urquiza0.6

Arsenal Sarandi1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 1.00

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

UAI Urquiza (H) 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 42.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UAI Urquiza face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UAI Urquiza a 20% chance, the draw 37% and Arsenal Sarandi 43%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for UAI Urquiza and 1.0 for Arsenal Sarandi (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UAI Urquiza are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Arsenal Sarandi. This match finished 0-1.

UAI Urquiza vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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