Today / S. Italiano vs D. Armenio

S. Italiano vs D. Armenio Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

S. Italiano

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

D. Armenio

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-19.4%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.5%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.3%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-13.7%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 32.1% — — —

Away win 19.4% — — —

Over 2.5 34.8% — — —

Over 3.5 15.9% — — —

BTTS 41.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.0%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.5%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Italiano1.3

D. Armenio0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

S. ITALIANO · PPG 2.00

D. ARMENIO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.5%

Win probability 1X2

S. Italiano (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

D. Armenio (A) 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Italiano face D. Armenio on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Italiano a 49% chance, the draw 32% and D. Armenio 19%, so S. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for S. Italiano and 0.8 for D. Armenio (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Italiano are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Armenio. This match finished 1-0.

S. Italiano vs D. Armenio Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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