Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Langwarrin vs Western Utd B

Langwarrin vs Western Utd B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 05:00

Langwarrin

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Utd B

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.4%0-23.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.5%1-17.0%1-27.0%1-34.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.5%3-15.0%3-25.1%3-33.4%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.2%4+-24.3%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 45.5% 2.20 -12.2%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -21.3%

Away win 37.5% 40.0% 2.50 -6.3%

Over 2.5 77.6% — — —

Over 3.5 58.5% — — —

BTTS 76.9% 80.0% 1.25 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob76.9%

H 40% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 77%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–2✓ 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Langwarrin2.1

Western Utd B2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.6% · O3.5 PROB 58.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LANGWARRIN · PPG 1.00

WESTERN UTD B · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Langwarrin (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -12.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -21.3%

Western Utd B (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Langwarrin face Western Utd B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langwarrin a 40% chance, the draw 23% and Western Utd B 38%, so Langwarrin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Langwarrin and 2.0 for Western Utd B (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langwarrin are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Western Utd B. This match finished 3-2.

Langwarrin vs Western Utd B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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